POPALGO Results
1/23/2024
These are the results as of 1/23/2024 (Every single game from December 9th 2019 until yesterday*)
The key here is the line movements section on the far right (circled in red), these results are what is keeping this whole thing alive and they are pretty consistent over the course of the month and half we have been tracking. As long as we can keep predicting line movements, the win/loss record should correlate positively and as you can see in the middle section, it is keeping pace.
Another way to look at this:
As you can see on the image to the left and above, as the conviction score rises (the difference in points between the popalgo number and the line), the likelihood of the line moving in the direction closer to our number increases as does the winning percentage.
This is exactly what we were hoping to accomplish when setting out on this mission 3 years ago.
This is what the line movements look like displayed graphically
What this shows is that you can clearly see the trend showing that the higher the conviction score, the more likely the line is going to move in our favor. This is graphing all 1600+ games.
Now if we include wins and losses to this graph, this is what it looks like. (Blue is line movements, Orange is Win/Losses)
Just like the correlation between conviction and line movements, winning percentage increases as well as the higher the conviction number increases as well. This is a clear sign that something is working (for now)